By 2020 there will be a major shift in the global balance of economic power compared to 2010. Euromonitor International assesses the shift and its implications.
Emerging economies will rise in importance and China will have overtaken the USA to lead the list of the world's top ten largest economies by GDP measured in PPP terms.
Although in terms of major appliances the average unit price in China is forecast to grow to US$250, however this is still 250% less than the forecast for the USA. Volume and value gains will be sought through both emerging markets and developed markets over the long term, although it is clear over the medium term value is still going to be driven in developed North American and Western European markets. Consumer markets, including appliances and electronics, in emerging economies will present enormous opportunities but their rapid growth also poses a challenge to the global environment.
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Key points
- The top ten largest economies in 2010 in terms of total GDP measured at purchasing power parity (PPP) are the USA, China, Japan, India, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom (UK), France, Brazil and Italy. PPP is a method of measuring the relative purchasing power of different countries' currencies over the same types of goods and services, thus allowing a more accurate comparison of living standards;
- Six out of the ten biggest economies in 2010 are advanced countries. With GDP measured at PPP terms accounting for 20.2% of the world total, the USA is the world's largest economy in 2010;
- In 2010, China ranks as the second largest economy in the world, with GDP making up 13.3% of the world total in PPP terms. Other emerging economies in the top ten biggest economies in 2010 are India, Russia and Brazil. Emerging countries have fared better than advanced economies overall during the global economic recession;
- By 2020, there will be major shifts in the world economic order in which emerging economies will become more important. China will overtake the USA to become the largest world economy in 2017 and there will be more emerging economies in the top ten economies by 2020 and beyond;
- The rise in importance of emerging economies will have implications for global consumption, investment and the environment. Large consumer markets in emerging economies will present enormous opportunities for businesses. However, income per capita will remain higher in the advanced world.